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天然橡胶市场一周行情(2015.01.12-01.16)

时间:2015-01-26 作者: 来源: 点击次数:5722

<table style="width:100%;" border="1" cellspacing="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellpadding="2"> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="8"> <p style="text-align:center;" class="MsoNormal"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:14px;">天然橡胶市场一周行情(2015.01.12-01.16)</span></strong> </p> <p style="text-align:center;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">--国家天然橡胶产业技术体系海口综合试验站(中国天然橡胶协会)&nbsp;中国农垦经济发展中心经济贸易处</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">类别</span></strong><br /> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.12</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.13</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.14</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.15</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.16</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">涨跌幅</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" rowspan="3" width="14%"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">产区FOB价格</span></strong><br /> </td> <td width="20%"> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">泰国烟片RSS3(美元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1712.9</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">--</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1702.3</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1704.4</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1705.6</span> </td> <td width="11%"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-0.43%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">印标20#(美元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1700.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">--</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1680.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1680.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1660.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-2.35%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">马标20#(美元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1456.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1428.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1386.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1398.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1397.0</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-4.05%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" rowspan="2"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">国内现货报价</span></strong><br /> </td> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">上海、山东全乳胶(元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12500</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12500</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">11700</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">11700</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">11700</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-6.40%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">人民币复合胶报价(元,含税)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">10400</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12000</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">11500</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">10100</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">10100</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-2.88%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;" rowspan="10"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">市场信息</span></strong><br /> </td> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">沪胶成交量分析(手)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">563020</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">559164</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">793010</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">523152</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">587562</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">4.36%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">沪胶持仓量分析(手)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">182754</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">183636</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">191250</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">193388</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">187658</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">2.68%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">主力合约收盘价(元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">13285</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12920</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12425</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12625</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12650</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-4.78%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">沪胶远近合约价差(元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-315</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-315</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-330</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-270</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-245</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">70</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">新加坡RSS3结算价(美元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1670</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1631</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1600</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1607</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1600</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-4.19%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">新加坡TSR20结算价(美元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1440</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1411</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1398</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1388</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1380</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-4.17%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">TOCOM主力月收盘价(日元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">--</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">203.8</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">195.1</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">196.2</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">192.7</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-5.45%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">NYMEX原油(美元)</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">46.07</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">45.89</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">48.48</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">46.25</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">48.69</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">5.69%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">美元兑人民币中间价</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6.2027</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6.2027</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6.1955</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6.1870</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6.2065</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">0.06%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">美元兑日元汇率</span><span style="line-height:1.5;"></span> </p> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">118.33</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">118.33</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">117.29</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">116.3</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">117.61</span> </td> <td> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">-0.61%</span> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">库存放方面</span></strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">上海期货交易所本周五库存由上周的吨</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">151585</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">增至</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">160297</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">吨,增加</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">8712</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">,或</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">5.75%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">截至</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">月</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">30</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">日,青岛保税区橡胶总库存较本月中旬小幅下滑</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">,至</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">13.1</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">万吨。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">日本橡胶贸易协会最新公布的数据显示,截至</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">月</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">31</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">日,日本港口橡胶库存再增加</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">2.5%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">至</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">13,306</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">吨</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">。</span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="line-height:1.5;font-size:12px;"></span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">供应方面</span></strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:12px;">2014</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年,</span><span style="font-size:12px;">ANRPC</span><span style="font-size:12px;">各成员国天然橡胶累计消费量同比增长</span><span style="font-size:12px;">4.9%</span><span style="font-size:12px;">至</span><span style="font-size:12px;">740.5</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨。同时,对</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2013</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年天胶消费量数据进行了修正,从</span><span style="font-size:12px;">708.36</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨下调至</span><span style="font-size:12px;">705.99</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨。从缅甸橡胶产业协会获悉,目前缅甸橡胶的种植面积已达</span><span style="font-size:12px;">150</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万英亩,产量将超过</span><span style="font-size:12px;">17</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-size:12px;">IRSG</span><span style="font-size:12px;">预计</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2016</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年全球橡胶供应过剩量料缩减至</span><span style="font-size:12px;">5.1</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨,</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2015</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年全球橡胶供应过剩量料为</span><span style="font-size:12px;">7.7</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨,而</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2014</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年的供应过剩量为</span><span style="font-size:12px;">7.6</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨。预计</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2015</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年全球橡胶产出量料为</span><span style="font-size:12px;">1239</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨,</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2016</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年料增加至</span><span style="font-size:12px;">1291</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨;预计</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2015</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年全球橡胶需求量料为</span><span style="font-size:12px;">1232</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨,</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2016</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年料增加至</span><span style="font-size:12px;">1286</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨;预计</span><span style="font-size:12px;">2014</span><span style="font-size:12px;">年全球橡胶产量为</span><span style="font-size:12px;">1202</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨,需求量为</span><span style="font-size:12px;">1194</span><span style="font-size:12px;">万吨。</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">需求方面</span></strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">中国海关总署最新公布的数据显示,中国</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">2014</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">年</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">11</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">月天然橡胶进口量为</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">21.89</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">万吨,同比降</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">18.7%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">。</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">汽车方面</span></strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">2014</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">年,汽车产销</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">2372.29</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">万辆和</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">2349.19</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">万辆,同比增长</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">7.26%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">和</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6.86%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">,增幅与上年相比有所回落,全年商用车销售完成</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">379</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">万辆,同比下降</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6.5%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">。</span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">宏观方面</span></strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">中国</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">月新增人民币贷款为</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">6973</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">亿元,不及预期的</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">8800</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">亿元,但当月社会融资规模飙升到</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.69</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">万亿元,大幅高于预期的</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">1.2</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">万亿元,</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">月</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">M2</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">增速为</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">12.2%</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">。</span> </p> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">据泰国</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">15</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">日消息,泰国农业合作部副部长称,泰国政府计划通过在多个橡胶种植省份建立橡胶交易中心市场,在两个月内将橡胶价格推至</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">65</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">泰铢</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">/</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">公斤。农业合作部已经建立了</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">10</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">个橡胶交易中心市场以及</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">108</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">个小型交易站,建立橡胶交易中心是政府解决胶价低迷问题的举措之一。</span> </p> <p class="MsoNormal"> <span style="line-height:1.5;font-size:12px;"></span> </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="text-align:center;"> <strong><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">总体分析</span></strong> </td> <td colspan="7"> <p style="text-align:justify;text-indent:21pt;margin-left:0pt;" class="MsoNormal"> <span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">总体看,全球供应充足。本周泰国</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">3</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">号烟片、印尼</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">20</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">号标胶、马来西亚的</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">20</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">号标胶</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">FOB</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">价格小幅下跌;沪胶主力、新加坡</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">RSS3</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">小幅下跌,</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">TOCOM</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">主力合约、新加坡</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">&nbsp;TSR20</span><span style="font-family:SimSun;font-size:12px;">小幅下跌;沪胶的成交量、持仓量小幅增加;上海、山东现货价格小幅减少。上海期货交易所天然橡胶库存小幅增加,青岛保税区库存持续减少。美元指数上涨、美原油指数上涨、道琼斯指数下跌。受多种因素影响,近期天胶震荡下跌。</span> </p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table>

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